How to Pick Outsiders in Horse Racing

There is no greater sensation than successfully backing a victor in horse racing, and that sensation is even more gratifying if you have successfully identified a longshot with high odds that has triumphed when no one else was able to recognize its potential. It is also a delightful experience to discover favorable odds in horse racing – make sure to check out the top horse racing bookmakers in 2024.

Each day, there are numerous of these horses competing, and some of them emerge victorious. However, what should you look for when attempting to find value and identify a longshot with high odds that has a good chance of performing well? There are multiple factors to consider, and here are just a few of them that will hopefully assist you in narrowing down the selection next time you place a bet on horse racing. This is a simple guide to horse race betting for beginners.

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Look at Overall Form, Not Recent Form

When bookmakers set the odds for races, they always take into account recent performances and focus on horses that have shown promise in their most recent races (see: horse racing form analysis). If a horse has recently won a race, it is likely to be considered one of the favorites to win the next race, along with those that have consistently performed well in recent runs. However, when searching for an underdog with a chance of winning, it is important to consider the overall picture of their performance, rather than solely relying on recent results.

Underdogs have a relatively low probability of winning a race, ranging from 10% to 20%, but the odds for this type of bet are higher.

✅ Absolutely! It is possible to place a wager on a horse to not win. Additionally, you have the option to select multiple horses to lose the race if you believe that all five horses are underperforming and will not come out on top.

In order to select a winning horse, extensive research and analysis of previous horse racing statistics is imperative. Factors such as finishing positions in past races, the timing of the last race, previous victories at certain distances and courses, as well as the jockey and trainer records and the official horse rating, need to be taken into consideration.

When deciding on the horse to place your bet on, it is crucial to observe the horse’s physical condition and demeanor. Take note of whether the horse appears fatigued or agitated, its overall health and strength, and whether it exhibits signs of contentment or illness. It is crucial to remember that horses are living beings with varying temperaments.

✅ Absolutely, it is possible to wager on each individual horse participating in a race, although it is not a profitable strategy and only benefits the bookmaker.

The concept of „each way“ in horse racing implies placing two separate bets. One bet is placed on a horse to win the race, while the other bet is on a horse to finish within a specified number of places.

Horses that are priced at higher odds usually have a reason for their odds, often due to recent underwhelming performances. Nevertheless, there is still a possibility that they could win the race. To determine their potential, it is essential to examine their past record. Keep an eye out for horses that have the necessary form to win the race but haven’t displayed it recently.

For instance, consider a horse that emerged victorious in a similar race six months ago, rather than a horse that prevailed in a similar race in its most recent outing. Despite both horses having the same performance record, they will be assigned different odds in the betting market. The discrepancy arises because one horse’s victory is still fresh in people’s minds, while the other horse’s performance requires you to consult the form book.

If you wish to successfully back an outsider horse, you will need to engage in this type of analysis. You must identify horses that have the potential to rebound and possess the necessary form to do so. This is the key to selecting underdogs in horse racing.

Look For a Change in Circumstances

This encompasses a wide range of aspects but is an excellent method for uncovering value in the realm of horse racing. The objective here is to identify a horse that has recently underperformed, yet possesses a unique element that could potentially alter its fortunes in the upcoming race.

As a result of their disappointing performances, these horses will be offered at long odds. Your aim is to discover a rationale for supporting a particular horse and ascertain how it could potentially deliver value to you.

Different Scenarios for Horse Betting Strategy

Ground

Search for horses that have recently struggled with unfavorable ground conditions, but are now returning to their preferred type of ground. This could be a horse that has been competing during the winter and is now racing in the spring when the ground conditions are more favorable.

These horses may not have performed well on the difficult winter ground, but they excel on the better ground during the spring season. Their recent performances will be reflected in their odds, which will be high due to their previous poor performances on the unfavorable ground, making them a great choice for horse betting.

Change of Track

There are numerous racecourses in the United Kingdom, each possessing its own distinctiveness, presenting a formidable challenge for the equine competitors. Occasionally, a horse may not favor a specific course for various reasons, and instead, find solace in a different venue.

Be observant of horses that have struggled to perform due to the nature of the track, and subsequently transition to a more suitable alternative. For instance, if a horse has performed poorly on a compact track with sharp bends, switching to a sprawling, level track may provide them with the ideal conditions to secure victory.

Trainer Form

It is also important to take note of the trainers of the horses you are supporting. Trainers have periods when their horses perform well, and other times when they face difficulties. These circumstances have an impact on the horse you back, and if a trainer has been experiencing a slump in form recently, it may explain why the horse has been performing poorly. This could be due to a virus in the stable or a change in routine.

When a horse trained by someone in good form returns, they often win at high odds. This is because they have been struggling in recent weeks, showing no signs of form. However, now that the horse is free from any issues in the stable, they can perform at their best, which could result in a surprise victory for bettors who choose a horse like this.

Change of Trainers

This can frequently have a fantastic effect on certain horses, giving them a fresh opportunity. On occasion, a horse may transition to a new stable, either due to being sold or because the owner wants to try something different. It’s definitely worth paying attention to, regardless of the trainers involved.

Horses that move from a large stable to a smaller, less well-known trainer may benefit from the extra care and attention they receive in a smaller stable. This can lead to improvement and success in races.

On the other hand, the opposite can also be true. When a horse moves from a smaller stable to a larger one, the facilities and care are often better, resulting in improved race preparation. This can have a significant impact on a racehorse, and it’s worth keeping an eye on a horse’s performance after a move for signs of improvement. This is a summary of the horse racing betting guide.